Russia’s Oil Tax Windfall Amid Strait of Hormuz Disruption

Russia is poised to reap significant oil tax revenues as crude prices surge above $100 per barrel, driven by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The average price for Urals crude, Russia's export blend, reached $106.30 in the first 13 days of April—a 42% jump from March. This spike has bolstered Moscow's budget, which was initially based on a conservative $59 per barrel estimate.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted Middle East energy flows, forcing refiners to seek alternatives and elevating the value of available barrels. Russia has emerged as a key beneficiary, with Urals prices potentially hitting 8,300 rubles, the highest since March 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine.

Meanwhile, oil futures dipped slightly after U.S. Vice President JD Vance hinted at potential renewed talks with Iran, though the International Energy Agency warns of simultaneous demand and supply shocks in the market.